How is the market of Chinese star anise in 2020？

How is the star anise oil market going?

In 2020, most market is recession, but not Chinese star anise. The price is steadily rising. In last week, the 60-70% dry star anise price is climbing to RMB 55/KG now. Why the price is going up so quickly? Can price reach RMB 100/KG in the future?

We calculated the price since 2018 as below photo,

The main factor of price skyrocket is shortage stock. History stocks are nearly finished after production reduced in past years. In 2020, both Spring and Autumn production are worse. Upon the history experience, the star anise production is related with the weather and big production/small production year. According to the growth of star anise tree, there would be a big production year in each 3-4 years. In 2012, it was big production year, with about 90 thousand tons. In 2013-2016, it was small production year, with about 40-50 thousand tons. In 2017, it was big production year, with about 80 thousand tons. In 2018, it was small production year again, with about 30 thousand tons. In China, the consumption is 60 thousand tons per year.

In 2019, the production was not good too. The stock was consumed well, stock was already nearly finished at that time. In 2020, everyone knew that the Spring production was reduction too. Price was going up from RMB 30/KG to RMB 45-50/KG. Before Autumn production, the price was down to RMB 40/KG. With the fresh Autumn production starting, people found the output would be small again. Furthermore, there are too much rain. Most buyers are collecting star anise now. Price is going like what you see as the above photo.

Why the production is so small in recently years? It should be retrospect to 1993. In 1993, the price was up to RMB 30/KG, before 1993, price was about RMB 10/KG. In 2000-2001, production was reduced because of bad weather, price was about RMB 70/KG. The higher price pushed lots of farmers cultivated the trees.

The trees can have fruit in 7-10 years, high yield after 15 years, small yield after 20 years. From the big growing area in 1993, the trees are old age in 2018, yield is reducing year on year. The 2nd big grow area in 2001, the yield would reduce yield after 2026.

From 2012-2017, the price was about RMB 12-15/KG, farmers didn't management the trees, large area trees were in wild status, trees had serious pests and diseases. So, the production was reduced in past years. For example, if the trees are managed well, it's about 150kg fruit per tree. And not managed well, the tree can have 5kg/each. It's about 30 times difference.

According to 2020 Autumn production, the production is same/similar in Baise, Rongxian and Funing areas. Most other areas are bad production. In some areas, production reduced 90%. For the reasons, someone think 2020 is small production year, someone think it's because of old tree in wild management.

Overall, the star anise price went up so quickly already, it may need time for the market accept it. In the short term, price may difficult to rise again. But in the future, the price may have the possibility up to RMB 100/KG.

Our company is a Chinese distiller of essential oils. Star anise oil and natural anethol are our core products. Our manufacture cost are connected with the star anise production and market.The essential oil quality is depended on the raw materials. We devote ourself control the best quality from the raw materials. That is why we have good odor and components than else.

Star anise oil has two kinds quality, one is extract from leaf, the other is extract from fruit. Most companies don't distinguish them well. To be honestly, the quality and smell are a little different between them. We won't introuce the detail here, if anyone interested on it, please contact us.  

Therefore, the above market information may be helpful to you if you need star anise oil and natural anethol products.